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.jiaoliu-Wrap{position:fixed;top:50%;left:50%;z-index:999;display:none;margin-top:-210px;margin-left:-380px;padding-top:75px;width:760px;height:356px;border-radius:12px;background:url(/images/index2020/jiaoliu_bk.png) no-repeat center top;text-align:center;} .jiaoliu-Wrap p{padding-left:30px;color:#333;font-weight:700;font-size:28px;line-height:40px;} .jiaoliu-Wrap img{position:absolute;top:140px;left:50%;margin-left:-84px;width:195px;height:195px;} .jiaoliu-Wrap .close{position:absolute;top:20px;right:20px;width:26px;height:26px;background:url(/images/index2020/gb_09.png) no-repeat center top;} .jiaoliu-Wrap em{display:inline-block;padding-top:238px;padding-left:30px;color:#666;font-size:18px;line-height:33px;} .jiaoliu-Wrap em i{color:#f58339;} .jiaoliu-mask{position:fixed;top:0;left:0;z-index:98;display:none;width:100%;height:100%;background:#000;opacity:.3;} </style> <div id="gwr18lkl3dc" class="jiaoliu-mask"></div> <div id="gwr18lkl3dc" class="jiaoliu-Wrap"> <div id="gwr18lkl3dc" class="close"></div> <p>交流分享，早日上岸！</p> <img src="http://www.zcjx68.com/upload/resources/image/2025/05/16/600519.jpg" alt=""> <em>掃碼并回復<i>咨詢(xún)工程師</i>進(jìn)群</em> </div> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://www.zcjx68.com/js/jquery-1.9.1.min.js"></script> <script> $('.jiaoliu').click(function(){ $('.jiaoliu-Wrap,.jiaoliu-mask').show(300); $('.jiaoliu-Wrap .close').click(function(){ $('.jiaoliu-Wrap,.jiaoliu-mask').hide(300); }) }) </script>    <div id="gwr18lkl3dc" class="mbx layout msf"> 當前位置：<a href='/'>建設工程教育網(wǎng)</a> > <a href='/zixun/'>咨詢(xún)工程師</a> > <a href='/zixun/fxzl/'>備考資料</a> > <a href='/zixun/ziliao/'>復習資料</a> > 正文 </div>   <div id="gwr18lkl3dc" class="main clearfix layout msf"> <div id="gwr18lkl3dc" class="l-news fl">  <h1>咨詢(xún)工程師考試《分析與評價(jià)》輔導：德?tīng)柗品?/h1> <div id="gwr18lkl3dc" class="tit clearfix"> <div id="gwr18lkl3dc" class="tit-l fl">2010-11-11 16：08　　來(lái)源：<a href="" title="" class="ly"></a>　　字體：<a href="javascript:void(0);" target="_self" class="big lan">大</a><a href="javascript:void(0);" target="_self" class="small lan">小</a>　　<a href="javascript:void(0);" target="_self" onclick="javascript:window.print()" title="打印" class="lan">打印</a> </div>  </div> <div id="gwr18lkl3dc" class="news clearfix txt2"> <p>　　德?tīng)柗品ǎ―elphi）是在專(zhuān)家個(gè)人判斷法和專(zhuān)家會(huì )議法的基礎上發(fā)展起來(lái)的一種專(zhuān)家調查法，廣泛應用在市場(chǎng)預測、技術(shù)預測、方案比選、社會(huì )評價(jià)等眾多領(lǐng)域。</p><p>　　<strong>（一）德?tīng)柗品ǔ绦?/strong></p><p>　　1.建立預測工作組</p><p>　　2.選擇專(zhuān)家</p><p>　　3.設計調查表</p><p>　　4.組織調查實(shí)施</p><p>　　5.匯總處理調查結果</p><p>　　<strong>（二）德?tīng)柗品ǖ睦?/strong></p><p>　　1. 德?tīng)柗品ǖ奶攸c(diǎn)：</p><p>　　匿名性、反饋性、收斂性、廣泛性</p><p>　　2. 德?tīng)柗品ǖ膬?yōu)點(diǎn)：</p><p>　?。?）便于獨立思考和判斷。</p><p>　?。?）低成本實(shí)現集思廣益</p><p>　?。?）有利于探索性解決問(wèn)題。</p><p>　?。?）應用范圍廣泛。</p><p>　　3.德?tīng)柗品ǖ娜秉c(diǎn)：</p><p>　?。?）缺少思想溝通交流。</p><p>　?。?）易忽視少數人的意見(jiàn)。</p><p>　?。?）存在組織者主觀(guān)影響。</p><p>　　<strong>（三）德?tīng)柗品ǖ倪\用范圍</strong></p><p>　　1.缺乏足夠的<a title="資料" href="http://www.zcjx68.com/web/zhidao/" target="_blank" class="bule">資料</a>。如新產(chǎn)品的市場(chǎng)預測。</p><p>　　2.長(cháng)遠規劃或大趨勢預測。</p><p>　　3.影響預測事件的因素太多。</p><p>　　4.主觀(guān)因素對預測事件的影響較大。</p><p align="right"><a class="bule" href="http://www.zcjx68.com/" target="_blank"><font color="#000000">建設工程教育網(wǎng)</font></a><font color="#000000">整理</font></p> <a href="http://www.zcjx68.com/zixun/fxzl/wa20240426134307.shtml" target="_blank" title="刷題寶"><img src="/upload/resources/image/2024/10/30/596481.png" alt="刷題寶" class="banner"></a>   <div id="gwr18lkl3dc" class="share clearfix"> <div id="gwr18lkl3dc" class="info-share fl"> <div id="gwr18lkl3dc" class="bdsharebuttonbox"><a href="#" class="bds_more" data-cmd="more">分享到：</a><a title="分享到微信" href="#" class="bds_weixin" data-cmd="weixin"></a><a title="分享到QQ空間" href="#" class="bds_qzone" data-cmd="qzone"></a><a title="分享到新浪微博" href="#" class="bds_tsina" data-cmd="tsina"></a> </div> </div> <div id="gwr18lkl3dc" class="jc fr">【<a target="_blank" 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-ms-transform-origin:-29px 29px; -o-transform-origin:-29px 29px; transform-origin:-29px 29px; -webkit-transform:rotateZ(90deg); -moz-transform:rotateZ(90deg); -ms-transform:rotateZ(90deg); -o-transform:rotateZ(90deg); transform:rotateZ(90deg); -webkit-transition:all .3s ease; -moz-transition:all .3s ease; -ms-transition:all .3s ease; -o-transition:all .3s ease; transition:all .3s ease; } .rignav-mod ul li a span.one-line i{padding:20px 0 0 0;height:38px} .rignav-mod ul li a:hover{text-decoration:none} .rignav-mod ul li a:hover span{visibility:visible} .rignav-mod ul li a:hover span i{ -webkit-transform:rotateZ(0deg); -moz-transform:rotateZ(0deg); -ms-transform:rotateZ(0deg); -o-transform:rotateZ(0deg); transform:rotateZ(0deg); } .rignav-mod-con{position:absolute;width:136px;height:160px;background:#fff;top:-45px;left:-138px;border:1px solid #e0e0e0;-webkit-box-shadow:4px 7px 16px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.05);-moz-box-shadow:4px 7px 16px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.05);box-shadow:4px 7px 16px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.05);display:none} .rignav-mod-con div {width:136px;height:150px;padding-top:10px;text-align:center} .rignav-mod-con div img{display:block;margin:0 auto;} .rignav-mod-con div label{display:block;color:#999;line-height:20px;padding-top:6px} .rignav-mod ul li a.on .rignav-mod-con{display:block} .hatch{ animation-name: hatch; -webkit-animation-name: hatch; animation-duration: 2s; -webkit-animation-duration: 2s; animation-timing-function: ease-in-out; -webkit-animation-timing-function: ease-in-out; transform-origin: 50% 100%; -ms-transform-origin: 50% 100%; -webkit-transform-origin: 50% 100%; visibility: visible !important; } @keyframes hatch { 0% { -webkit-transform: rotate(0deg); } 5% { -webkit-transform: rotate(-2deg); } 9% { -webkit-transform: rotate(2deg); } 13% { -webkit-transform: rotate(-2deg); } 16% { -webkit-transform: rotate(1deg); } 20% { -webkit-transform: rotate(-1deg); } 25% { -webkit-transform: rotate(0deg); } } @-webkit-keyframes hatch { 0% { -webkit-transform: rotate(0deg); } 5% { -webkit-transform: rotate(-2deg); } 9% { -webkit-transform: rotate(2deg); } 13% { -webkit-transform: rotate(-2deg); } 16% { -webkit-transform: rotate(1deg); } 20% { -webkit-transform: rotate(-1deg); } 25% { -webkit-transform: rotate(0deg); } } /*add*/ .rignav .newGift{width:100px;margin:0 -20px;text-align:center;position:relative;} .rignav .newGift .newbottom{display:block;-webkit-animation:hatch 4s 0s infinite both;-moz-animation:hatch 4s 0s infinite both;-o-animation:hatch 4s 0s infinite both;animation:hatch 4s 0s infinite both} .rignav .newGift .newtop{display:block;-webkit-animation:bounceIn 2s both;-moz-animation:bounceIn 2s both;-o-animation:bounceIn 2s both;animation:bounceIn 2s both} /*add end*/ </style> <div id="gwr18lkl3dc" class="rignav">  <div id="gwr18lkl3dc" class="newGift"> <a href="http://www.zcjx68.com/zhuanti/2018zhuceyouli/" target="_blank" class="newtop"><img src="http://www.zcjx68.com/images/index/newtop.png" /></a> <a href="http://www.zcjx68.com/zhuanti/2018zhuceyouli/" target="_blank" class="newbottom tada"><img src="http://www.zcjx68.com/images/index/newbottom.png" /></a> </div>  <div id="gwr18lkl3dc" class="rignav-mod font-s12"> <ul> <li id="gwr18lkl3dc" class="shopping-cart"> <a target="_blank"> <span id="gwr18lkl3dc" class="one-line"><i>購物車(chē)</i></span> <em id="shopCartNum2" style="display:none"></em> </a> </li> <li id="gwr18lkl3dc" class="online-service"> <a target="_blank"> <span><i>在線(xiàn)<br>客服</i></span> </a> </li> <li id="gwr18lkl3dc" class="weixin"> <a href="javascript:void(0)"> <span><i>微信<br>公眾號</i></span> <div id="gwr18lkl3dc" class="rignav-mod-con"> <div id="gwr18lkl3dc" class="pr"> <img src="http://www.zcjx68.com/upload/resources/image/2021/05/31/496230.png" /> <label>掃一掃，立即關(guān)注</label> </div> </div> </a> </li> <li id="gwr18lkl3dc" class="app"> <a href="javascript:void(0)"> <span><i>APP<br>下載</i></span> <div id="gwr18lkl3dc" class="rignav-mod-con"> <div id="gwr18lkl3dc" class="pr"> <img src="http://www.zcjx68.com/images/index2017/code/app.png" /> <label>掃一掃，立即下載</label> </div> </div> </a> </li> <li id="gwr18lkl3dc" class="return-top"> <a href="javascript:void(0)"> <span><i>返回<br>頂部</i></span> </a> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <script type="text/javascript"> if(typeof jQuery == 'undefined'){document.write("<script src=\"http://www.zcjx68.com/js/jquery-1.9.1.min.js\">"+"</scr"+"ipt>");} </script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://24olv2.jianshe99.com/resource/pcbox/js/24olv2_box.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript"> (function($,win){ $.fn.doHoverOriginal = function (options) { //各種屬性、參數 var defaults = { sonSelector:'' } var _opt = $.extend(defaults, options); this.each(function () { //插件實(shí)現代碼 var _this=$(this); _this.hover(function(){ if(_opt.sonSelector==''){ $(this).addClass('on'); }else{ $(this).find(_opt.sonSelector).addClass('on'); } },function(){ if(_opt.sonSelector==''){ $(this).removeClass('on'); }else{ $(this).find(_opt.sonSelector).removeClass('on'); } }); }); }; $.fn.rignavShowOriginal = function (options) { //各種屬性、參數 var defaults = { params:{ 'shoppingCartUrl':'//member.jianshe99.com/sale/product/shoppingCart.shtm', 'onlineServiceUrl':'//24olv2.jianshe99.com/member/index.shtm', 'weixinPic':'//www.zcjx68.com/upload/resources/image/2020/06/02/458397.png', 'appPic':'//www.zcjx68.com/images/index2017/code/app.png' } } var _opt = $.extend(defaults, options); this.each(function () { //插件實(shí)現代碼 var _this=$(this); _this.find('.shopping-cart').children('a').attr('href',_opt.params.shoppingCartUrl); _this.find('.online-service').children('a').attr('href',_opt.params.onlineServiceUrl); _this.find('.weixin').find('img').attr('src',_opt.params.weixinPic); _this.find('.app').find('img').attr('src',_opt.params.appPic); $(window).bind("scroll", function(){ var st= $(document).scrollTop(); if(st>760){ _this.find('.return-top').fadeIn(120); }else{ _this.find('.return-top').fadeOut(120); } }); 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